Insufficient resources to cope with the negative effects of weather shocks can lead people to engage in risky migration, theft, and land seizures, which in turn can trigger social unrest and conflict. To combat this, policymakers often promote insurance against weather shocks, but there is little evidence of the extent to which they can help avoid conflicts and cope with climate shocks. To try to fill this gap, researchers received pilot funding to design a randomized evaluation of the Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI), that is offered to pastoralists in Ethiopia and Kenya. The evaluation will study whether this insurance can help mitigate the negative effects of weather shocks, both stand-alone and when insurance is jointly implemented with a conflict-mitigating intervention. 

With follow-on funding from IPA for a full study, the researchers, in partnership with International Alert, are evaluating whether IBLI can help mitigate the negative effects of weather shocks. In addition, the researchers are examining whether delivering an apprenticeship and cash transfer program to the young men who are most likely to engage in conflict reduces rainy season raiding. By addressing both economic incentives and vulnerability, this research seeks to generate scalable, evidence-based strategies to reduce violence, protect livelihoods, and build resilience in one of the world’s most climate- and conflict-affected regions.