The Challenge

Weak regulation and oversight of seed markets allow low-quality seeds and outright fakes (e.g., ordinary grain dyed and packaged to imitate improved seed) to reach farmers at scale in low- and middle-income countries.¹ This is particularly challenging in Sub-Saharan Africa, where informal markets dominate seed distribution and can make it difficult to enforce quality standards and distinguish certified seed from uncertified or counterfeit products. For instance, in Nigeria, more than half the crop seed sold was found to be low-quality and sometimes fake.² These market failures can impose costs beyond individual farmers: poor-quality seed can reduce agricultural productivity, labor supply, and economic returns while undermining farmers’ trust in and demand for improved seed and the formal seed system.³ Strengthening seed-market regulation, quality assurance, and enforcement is therefore critical to ensuring that farmers can reliably access quality seed and that investments in improved varieties translate into agricultural gains.

Such existing challenges in the sector have prompted programs to increase certification of the seed supply. Nigeria's SEEDCODEX system, for example, lets farmers verify that seed is certified by scratching a panel or scanning a QR code on the packet and texting the revealed code to a designated number. However, research from Kenya suggests that authentication tools alone do not guarantee that farmers actually use it, creating a significant need to explore effective interventions for purchasing certified seeds. Compounding the challenge is that most existing evidence on fake seed and verification tools comes from elsewhere in the region. As such, the National Agricultural Seeds Council is left without a clear picture of where its anti-counterfeiting tools, enforcement, and farmer outreach in Nigeria are most needed.

The Research

In collaboration with NASC and IPA Nigeria, researchers are assessing how often farmers in Nigeria encounter counterfeit and low-quality seed and how well they can identify it before purchase. The study surveys 1,200 farmers across six states, one from each of Nigeria's geopolitical zones. In each state, the survey covers four local government areas and interviews 50 farmers in each. Participants are adults who help make their household's seed-purchasing decisions and who have at least planted maize in the previous two seasons.

The survey measures how often farmers encounter fake or low-quality seed and what it costs them. It records the channels farmers buy seed through and their ability to tell genuine seed from counterfeit or low-quality alternatives. It also captures awareness and use of the SEEDCODEX verification system, whether farmers report seed problems, and what response they receive. The survey further gauges farmers' trust in the seed system and in regulatory institutions, including for genetically modified varieties. Researchers will also interview agro-dealers in the same areas to learn how fake and low-quality seeds reach local markets.

Results

Results will be available in late 2026.

Sources

^1. de Boef, W. S., D. Pierson, and D. Kim. 2014. Counterfeiting in African agriculture inputs: challenges and solutions. Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and Monitor Deloitte.

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. 2018. Seed toolkit, module 5: seed marketing. Rome: FAO and Africa Seeds.

^2. Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa. 2020. SEEDCODEX is boosting crop productivity by tackling
counterfeit seeds in Nigeria.

^3. Gharib, Mariam H., Leah H. Palm-Forster, Travis J. Lybbert, and Kent D. Messer. "Fear of fraud and willingness to pay for hybrid maize seed in Kenya." Food Policy 102 (2021): 102040.

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