Community information sharing is crucial to a government’s ability to respond to a disaster or a health emergency, such as a pandemic. In conflict zones, however, citizens and local leaders often lack trust in state institutions and are unwilling to cooperate, risking costly delays and information gaps. We report results from a randomized evaluation in the Philippines regarding government efforts to provide services and build trust with rural communities in a conflict-affected region. We find that the outreach program increased the probability that village leaders provide time-sensitive pandemic risk information critical to the regional Covid-19 Task Force by 20 percent. The effect is largest for leaders who, at baseline, were skeptical about government capacity and fairness and had neutral or positive attitudes towards rebels. A test of mechanisms suggests that intervention group leaders updated their beliefs about government competence and shows that neither security improvement nor project capture by the rebels are primary drivers. These findings highlight the important role that government efforts to build connections with conflict-affected communities can play in determining public health outcomes during times of national emergencies. 

In a forthcoming follow-up paper, the researchers found that major disruptions to the program in March 2020 due to the pandemic caused a reversal and leveling out of the positive effects. Though the program initially increased local leaders’ cooperation and strengthened perceived state capacity, once services were interrupted, these positive effects reversed, generating a trust and confidence backlash accompanied by rising and ultimately unmet expectations about government capacity, effort, and fairness. After programming restarted, attitudinal and behavioral outcomes (trust in government services and reporting by leaders) in intervention communities partially recovered, but not to positive effects seen before the stoppage, revealing the fragility of improvements to state legitimacy. Overall, the findings indicate that cycles of crisis and disruption can wipe out the effects of even highly popular and effective government programs in conflict zones.

IPA supported the initial scoping activities for this study between 2018 and 2019, including partnership building and survey instrument development.

Read the interview with the researchers here.