The Challenge

Criminal groups increasingly provide humanitarian aid (narco-aid) following natural disasters, aimed at fostering trust among the affected populations and strengthening their territorial control. Insufficient state resources to cope with climate change can thus inadvertently strengthen the criminal influence and territorial control. 

The Research

In partnership with Centro de Investigación y Acción Social (CIAS) and IPA Mexico, researchers in Mexico will first field a pilot survey to assess the relationship between climate shocks, criminal governance, trust in the state, and welfare. After this stage, the researchers will assess the impact of workfare programs following natural disasters in high-crime Mexican localities vulnerable to climate shocks. The workfare program will provide residents with 50-100 days of public employment focused on the reconstruction of neighborhoods affected by floods and landslides. 

Researchers will assess the likelihood of both criminal groups occupying a disaster-affected region and civilians accepting financial or humanitarian aid from criminal groups. Findings will provide insights into the link between climate change and criminal rule, which may support the design of future policies to counteract the presence of criminal groups in vulnerable areas.

Results

Results are forthcoming.