Evidence Generation
Asia
Evidence Generation
Asia
Due to the highly vulnerable and mobile nature of refugee populations, it is uniquely difficult to follow up with and contact refugee populations over time, resulting in limited longitudinal evidence on their experiences. The S-RLS is one of the first systematic efforts to conduct a large representative survey of refugees over an extended period of time. By providing some of the first insights on how the migration intentions and well-being of refugee households change over time, this representative panel is enabling evidence-based policymaking for both the Syrian refugee context and beyond.
With over 6.5 million Syrians displaced at the time of the survey,1 and an estimated 1.3 million residing in Jordan in 2022,2 the study provided a unique opportunity to better understand one of the largest refugee populations in the world. Spanning refugee camps and host communities, the survey followed 2,500 Syrian households in Jordan over four years and was conducted primarily in-person, with part of the first round conducted via phone due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey collected information on economic outcomes, migration, education, marriage and fertility, health, social attitudes, and preferences in 2022. The comparison data on the Jordanian host population came from the 2016 Jordanian Labor Market Panel Survey.
The following results were reported in 2022:
Demographics: Syrian-headed households were found to be, on average, larger than Jordanian-headed households (5.96 compared to 4.61 members). The refugee population is, on average, younger than the non-refugee Jordanian population. Syrian refugees in 2020 also had lower educational access and attainment relative to non-refugees in Jordan.
Gendered demographics: The gender distribution of both Jordanian and Syrian refugee populations was similar. Female-headed refugee households were highly dependent on aid and had significantly lower income than male-headed households. Finally, male refugees reported more conservative attitudes regarding gender than female refugees, such as whether it is okay for women to work outside of the home.
Health: 58 percent of Syrian refugees in Jordan likely suffer from depression. Furthermore, children of depressed parents are assessed to have worse socio-emotional outcomes than other children on average. Syrian refugee households were also, on average, more vulnerable than the representative non-refugee Jordanian household when it came to food security, housing quality, and access to public services.
Children: Interaction between Syrian and Jordanian children was mixed: 48 percent of Syrian children were said to have Jordanian friends, and 45 percent shared recreational spaces with Jordanian kids. School attendance was lower for Syrian refugee children under 14 relative to Jordanian children, and child marriage was more common among Syrian refugees than Jordanian nationals.
Return intentions: Before Assad’s fall, the vast majority of S-RLS respondents reported that they did not intend to return to Syria before the conflict was resolved (91 percent), which few believed was likely in the next two years (less than 20 percent). Furthermore, 57 percent of respondents said they would like to stay in Jordan after the Syrian conflict ends. Moreover, the majority of respondents reported that politics were irrelevant to them. Future waves of the study aim to shed light on the factors influencing refugee return.
Economic impacts: Only one percent of Syrian refugee households had a bank account, but nearly half borrowed informally, mostly interest-free loans from family or friends, though the majority of these loans were repaid late or defaulted. During the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown in Jordan, Syrian refugee households saw average incomes drop by roughly 80 percent compared with pre-lockdown levels. Recovery after restrictions eased was partial: households regained about 72 percent of lost income on average, with refugees living outside camps experiencing larger income losses but faster recovery than those in camps. Even after the lockdown, the share of households with at least one income‑earning member remained below pre-COVID levels, reflecting a 12 percent decline in households reporting any income.
With additional funding from IPA’s Displaced Livelihoods Initiative (DLI), the team is collaborating with researchers studying the dynamics of Syrian refugee return in Lebanon. They are conducting a follow-up survey of Syrian refugees in Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria to examine return intentions and decisions following the fall of the Assad regime. This study aims to provide insights into whether stated intentions accurately predict actual returns and to deepen our understanding of the factors that drive refugee return. Early results point to the importance of a broad range of factors in return decisions, including perceptions of safety in Syria; integration or happiness in Jordan; a history of travel to Syria; portability of skills; and labor market attachment. Demographics do not seem to be predictive of return, while there are a few variables associated with a negative correlation with return, including trusting Syrian refugees in Jordan; the number of times returned to Syria since arriving in Jordan; wanting to stay in Jordan; and being employed in low-skill or manual trade labor, or self-employment.
To learn more about this work, please see the results report, academic paper, and press release.
The S-RLS panel data are publicly available on the Harvard Dataverse. Data from the panel survey were also used in the 2025 working paper, “Chronic Depression, Child Development and Human Capital among the Forcibly Displaced: Evidence from Syrian Refugees.”
1. E. Miguel, S.V. Rozo, E. Smith, Understanding Syrian Refugee Wellbeing: Longitudinal Insights from a Panel Study in Jordan (CEGA, 2023); https://poverty-action.org/sites/default/files/2025-01/Understanding%20Syrian%20Refugee%20Wellbeing.pdf.
2. UNESCO, Country Profile: Jordan — Paving Pathways for Inclusion: Towards Evidence-Based Policy-Making for Refugee Education (UNESCO, n.d.); https://www.unesco.org/sites/default/files/medias/fichiers/2023/12/PPI-Country-Profiles-Jordan.pdf.
3. UNHCR, Refugee Statistics, https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics (accessed 24 February 2026).
